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TRIETSCH, Dan

The effect of systemic errors on optimal project buffers - Amsterdam : Elsevier, May 2005

Existing mathematical models for setting buffers for time or cost in project management assume that project activities are statistically independent. This leads to a highly counterintuitive and damaging conclusion that project buffers should become relatively negligible for projects with long chains of activities. We present a model that considers the statistical dependence between activities caused by estimation bias. We show that if relatively high service levels are desired, this imposes a positive lower bound on the buffer as a data-based fraction of the estimated project duration or budget. We also introduce a new approach for collecting data and estimating the parameters necessary to implement the model. This approach places a smaller burden on decision makers than traditional PERT: they provide single point estimates for means, while variance elements and bias correction are computed electronically using historical data.


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Escola Nacional de Administração Pública

Escola Nacional de Administração Pública

Endereço:

  • Biblioteca Graciliano Ramos
  • Funcionamento: segunda a sexta-feira, das 9h às 19h
  • +55 61 2020-3139 / biblioteca@enap.gov.br
  • SPO Área Especial 2-A
  • CEP 70610-900 - Brasília/DF
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