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Cycles in american national electoral politics, 1854-2006 : (Record no. 27474)

000 -LEADER
fixed length control field 01982naa a2200205uu 4500
001 - CONTROL NUMBER
control field 8091216415910
003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER
control field OSt
005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION
control field 20190211164230.0
008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field 080912s2008 xx ||||gr |0|| 0 eng d
999 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBERS (KOHA)
Koha Dewey Subclass [OBSOLETE] PHL2MARC21 1.1
041 ## - LANGUAGE CODE
Language code of text/sound track or separate title eng
100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name MERRIL III, Samuel
9 (RLIN) 35518
245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT
Title Cycles in american national electoral politics, 1854-2006 :
Remainder of title statistical evidence and an explanatory model
260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC.
Place of publication, distribution, etc. New York, NY :
Name of publisher, distributor, etc. Cambridge University Press,
Date of publication, distribution, etc. February 2008
520 3# - SUMMARY, ETC.
Summary, etc. Are there cycles in American politics? In particular, does the proportion of the Democratic/Republican vote share for president and/or seat share in Congress rise and fall over extended periods of time? If so, are the cycles regular, and what are the cycling periods? Moreover, if there are regular cycles, can we construct an integrated model—such as a negative feedback loop—that identifies political forces that could generate the observed patterns? First, we use spectral analysis to test for the presence and length of cycles, and show that regular cycles do, in fact, exist—with periods that conform to those predicted by the Schlesingers—for swings between liberalism and conservatism—but with durations much shorter than those most commonly claimed by Burnham and others in characterizing American political realignments. Second, we offer a voter–party interaction model that depends on the tensions between parties' policy and office motivations and between voters' tendency to sustain incumbents while reacting against extreme policies. We find a plausible fit between the regular cycling that this model projects and the time series of two-party politics in America over the past century and a half
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name GROFMAN, Bernard
9 (RLIN) 35519
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name BRUNELL, Thomas L
9 (RLIN) 29722
773 08 - HOST ITEM ENTRY
Title American Political Science Review
Related parts 102, 1, p. 1-18
Place, publisher, and date of publication New York, NY : Cambridge University Press, February 2008
International Standard Serial Number ISSN 00030554
Record control number
942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA)
Koha item type Periódico
998 ## - LOCAL CONTROL INFORMATION (RLIN)
-- 20080912
Operator's initials, OID (RLIN) 1641^b
Cataloger's initials, CIN (RLIN) Tiago
998 ## - LOCAL CONTROL INFORMATION (RLIN)
-- 20081113
Operator's initials, OID (RLIN) 1023^b
Cataloger's initials, CIN (RLIN) Zailton

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