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Using simulations to interpret results from logit, probit, and other nonlinear models (Record no. 32616)

000 -LEADER
fixed length control field 02127naa a2200181uu 4500
001 - CONTROL NUMBER
control field 0042615575137
003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER
control field OSt
005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION
control field 20190211171235.0
008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field 100426s2009 xx ||||gr |0|| 0 eng d
999 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBERS (KOHA)
Koha Dewey Subclass [OBSOLETE] PHL2MARC21 1.1
041 ## - LANGUAGE CODE
Language code of text/sound track or separate title eng
100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name ZELNER, Bennet A.
9 (RLIN) 39706
245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT
Title Using simulations to interpret results from logit, probit, and other nonlinear models
260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC.
Place of publication, distribution, etc. Bognor Regis :
Name of publisher, distributor, etc. Wiley-Blackwell,
Date of publication, distribution, etc. December 2009
520 3# - SUMMARY, ETC.
Summary, etc. In a recent issue of this journal, Glenn Hoetker proposes that researchers improve the interpretation and presentation of logit and probit results by reporting the marginal effects of key independent variables at theoretically interesting or empirically relevant values of the other independent variables in the model, and also by presenting results graphically (Hoetker, 2007: 335, 337). In this research note, I suggest an alternative approach for achieving this objective: reporting differences in predicted probabilities associated with discrete changes in key independent variable values. This intuitive approach to interpretation is especially useful when the theoretically interesting or empirically relevant changes in independent variables values are not very small, and also for models that contain interaction terms (or higher-order terms such as quadratics). Although the graphical presentations recommended by Hoetker implicitly embody this approach, they typically fail to include appropriate measures of statistical significance, and may therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. In order to calculate such measures, I recommend and demonstrate an intuitive simulation-based approach to statistical interpretation, developed by King et al. (2000), that has gained widespread adherence in the field of political science. Throughout the article, I provide a running example based on research that has previously appeared in the Strategic Management Journal.
773 08 - HOST ITEM ENTRY
Title Strategic Management Journal
Related parts 30, 12, p. 1335-1348
Place, publisher, and date of publication Bognor Regis : Wiley-Blackwell, December 2009
International Standard Serial Number ISSN 01432095
Record control number
942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA)
Koha item type Periódico
998 ## - LOCAL CONTROL INFORMATION (RLIN)
-- 20100426
Operator's initials, OID (RLIN) 1557^b
Cataloger's initials, CIN (RLIN) Daiane
998 ## - LOCAL CONTROL INFORMATION (RLIN)
-- 20100428
Operator's initials, OID (RLIN) 1655^b
Cataloger's initials, CIN (RLIN) Carolina

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