| 000 -LEADER |
|---|
| fixed length control field |
01672naa a2200193uu 4500 |
| 001 - CONTROL NUMBER |
|---|
| control field |
7236 |
| 003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER |
|---|
| control field |
OSt |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION |
|---|
| control field |
20190211154230.0 |
| 008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION |
|---|
| fixed length control field |
020925s2005 xx ||||gr |0|| 0 eng d |
| 999 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBERS (KOHA) |
|---|
| Koha Dewey Subclass [OBSOLETE] |
PHL2MARC21 1.1 |
| 041 ## - LANGUAGE CODE |
|---|
| Language code of text/sound track or separate title |
eng |
| 100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| Personal name |
TETLOCK, Philip E |
| 9 (RLIN) |
10603 |
| 245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT |
|---|
| Title |
Poking counterfactual holes in covering lwas : |
| Remainder of title |
cogninitive styles and historical reasoning |
| 260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. |
|---|
| Date of publication, distribution, etc. |
2001 |
| 520 3# - SUMMARY, ETC. |
|---|
| Summary, etc. |
We report a series of studies of historical reasoning among professional observers of world politics. The correlational studies demonstrate that experts with strong theoretical commitments to a covering law and cognitive-stylistic preferences for explanatory closure are more likely to reject close-call counterfactuals that imply that "already explained" historical outcomes could easily have taken radically different forms. The experimental studies suggest that counterfactual reasoning is not totally theory-driven: many experts are capable of surprisin themselve when encourage to imagne the implications of particular what-if scnearios. Yet, there is a downside to openness to historical contigency. The more effort expert allocate to exploring counterfactual worlds, the greater is the risk that they will assign too much subjective probability to too many scenarios. We close by defining good judgment as a reflective-equilibrium process of balancing the conficting causual intuition primed by complementary factual and counterfactual posings of historical quetions |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| Personal name |
LEBOW, Richard Ned |
| 9 (RLIN) |
5952 |
| 773 08 - HOST ITEM ENTRY |
|---|
| Title |
American Political Science Review |
| Related parts |
95, 4, p. 829-844 |
| Place, publisher, and date of publication |
, 2001 |
| Record control number |
|
| 942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA) |
|---|
| Koha item type |
Periódico |
| 998 ## - LOCAL CONTROL INFORMATION (RLIN) |
|---|
| -- |
20020925 |
| Operator's initials, OID (RLIN) |
Cassio |
| Cataloger's initials, CIN (RLIN) |
Cassio |
| 998 ## - LOCAL CONTROL INFORMATION (RLIN) |
|---|
| -- |
20060512 |
| Operator's initials, OID (RLIN) |
1204^b |
| Cataloger's initials, CIN (RLIN) |
Quiteria |
