| 000 -LEADER |
|---|
| fixed length control field |
03690cam a2200421 i 4500 |
| 003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER |
|---|
| control field |
BR-BrENAP |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION |
|---|
| control field |
20191016062605.0 |
| 008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION |
|---|
| fixed length control field |
150506s2015 nyua b 001 0 eng |
| 020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER |
|---|
| International Standard Book Number |
9780804136716 |
| 040 ## - CATALOGING SOURCE |
|---|
| Original cataloging agency |
BR-BrENAP |
| Language of cataloging |
Pt_BR |
| 041 0# - LANGUAGE CODE |
|---|
| Language code of text/sound track or separate title |
eng |
| 082 00 - DEWEY DECIMAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER |
|---|
| Classification number |
303.49 |
| Edition number |
23 |
| 090 ## - LOCALLY ASSIGNED LC-TYPE CALL NUMBER (OCLC); LOCAL CALL NUMBER (RLIN) |
|---|
| Classification number (OCLC) (R) ; Classification number, CALL (RLIN) (NR) |
3 |
| Local cutter number (OCLC) ; Book number/undivided call number, CALL (RLIN) |
T347s |
| 100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| Personal name |
Tetlock, Philip E |
| 245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT |
|---|
| Title |
Superforecasting : |
| Remainder of title |
the art and science of prediction / |
| Statement of responsibility, etc. |
Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner |
| 260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. |
|---|
| Place of publication, distribution, etc. |
New York: |
| Name of publisher, distributor, etc. |
Broadway Books, |
| Date of publication, distribution, etc. |
2015. |
| 300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION |
|---|
| Extent |
340 p. |
| 504 ## - BIBLIOGRAPHY, ETC. NOTE |
|---|
| Bibliography, etc. note |
Inclui bibliografia. |
| 505 0# - FORMATTED CONTENTS NOTE |
|---|
| Title |
1. An optimistic skeptic |
| -- |
2. Illusions of knowledge |
| -- |
3. Keeping score |
| -- |
4. Superforecasters |
| -- |
5. Supersmart? |
| -- |
6. Superquants? |
| -- |
7. Supernewsjunkies? |
| -- |
8. Perpetual beta |
| -- |
9. Superteams |
| -- |
10. The leader's dilemma |
| -- |
11. Are they really so super? |
| -- |
12. What's next? |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. |
|---|
| Summary, etc. |
"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superf |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| Topical term or geographic name entry element |
Ciências Sociais |
| 9 (RLIN) |
12757 |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
|---|
| 9 (RLIN) |
13694 |
| Topical term or geographic name entry element |
Economia |
| General subdivision |
Previsão econômica |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| Personal name |
Gardner, Dan |
| 909 ## - |
|---|
| -- |
201901 |
| -- |
Vinícius |
| 942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA) |
|---|
| Koha item type |
Livro Geral |
