Estimation and evaluation of uncertainty - a minimalist first pass approach
By: CHAPMAN, Chris
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Contributor(s): WARD, Stephen.
Material type: 
ArticlePublisher: dec.2000Subject(s): Risk Management | Uncertainty Management | Opportunity Management | Competitive Bidding | Estimation and Evaluation of UncertaintyInternational Journal of Project Management 18, 6, p. 369-383Abstract: This paper describes an approach to the estimation and evaluation of uncertainty designed for ease of use. It is designed to be easier to use than probability impact grid basd approaches, and it links approaches in this format to quantitative approaches. Tt is based on a general view of uncertainty wich incorporates ambiguity as well as variability and lack of data. A concern for ientifying soucs of uncertainty is one characteristic of the approach which flows from this perspective. Other characteristics include deliberate conservative bias to counteract persistent underestimation of uncertainty. It is set in the constext of an interative to an overall uncertaity management process. The example used to illustrate the approach involves project duraction and cost estimation for bidding purpuses
| Item type | Current location | Collection | Call number | Status | Date due | Barcode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Periódico | Biblioteca Graciliano Ramos | Periódico | Not for loan |
This paper describes an approach to the estimation and evaluation of uncertainty designed for ease of use. It is designed to be easier to use than probability impact grid basd approaches, and it links approaches in this format to quantitative approaches. Tt is based on a general view of uncertainty wich incorporates ambiguity as well as variability and lack of data. A concern for ientifying soucs of uncertainty is one characteristic of the approach which flows from this perspective. Other characteristics include deliberate conservative bias to counteract persistent underestimation of uncertainty. It is set in the constext of an interative to an overall uncertaity management process. The example used to illustrate the approach involves project duraction and cost estimation for bidding purpuses
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