A Model of path-dependence in decisions over multiple propositions
By: LIST, Christian
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ArticlePublisher: New York : Cambridge University Press, August 2004American Political Science Review 98, 3, p. 495-514Abstract: I model sequential decisions over multiple interconnected propositios and investigate path-dependece in such decisions. The propositions and their interconnections are represented in propositional logic. A sequential decision process in path-dependent if its outcome depends on the order in wich the propositions are considered. Assuming that earlier decisions constrain later ones, I prove three main results: First, certain rationality violations by the decision-making agent - individual or group - are necessary and sufficient for path-dependece. Second, under some conditions, path-dependence is unavoidable in decisions made by groups. Third, path-dependence makes decisions vulnerable to strategic agenda setting and strategic voting. I also discuss escape routes from path-dependence. My results are relevant to discussions on collective consistency and reason-based decision-making, focusing not only on outcomes, but also on underlying reasons, beliefs, and constraints.
I model sequential decisions over multiple interconnected propositios and investigate path-dependece in such decisions. The propositions and their interconnections are represented in propositional logic. A sequential decision process in path-dependent if its outcome depends on the order in wich the propositions are considered. Assuming that earlier decisions constrain later ones, I prove three main results: First, certain rationality violations by the decision-making agent - individual or group - are necessary and sufficient for path-dependece. Second, under some conditions, path-dependence is unavoidable in decisions made by groups. Third, path-dependence makes decisions vulnerable to strategic agenda setting and strategic voting. I also discuss escape routes from path-dependence. My results are relevant to discussions on collective consistency and reason-based decision-making, focusing not only on outcomes, but also on underlying reasons, beliefs, and constraints.
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