Balança comercial e taxa de câmbio real : uma análise de co-integração
By: NUNES, João Marcus Marinho
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ArticlePublisher: São Paulo : Nobel, jan./mar. 1994Revista de Economia Política = Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 14, 1, p. 53-62Abstract: This paper utilizes the methodology of co-integration to test the theoretical proposition that there is a long run relationship between the trade balance and the real exchange rate. Several of the commonly used definitions of the real exchange rate were tested but none showed co-integration with the trade balance. The only measure of the real exchange rate that was co-integrated with the trade balance was the one defined by the relative price of tradeables and non-tradeables. The evidence is not inconsistent with the observation that the direction of causality runs from the real exchange rate to the trade balance
This paper utilizes the methodology of co-integration to test the theoretical proposition that there is a long run relationship between the trade balance and the real exchange rate. Several of the commonly used definitions of the real exchange rate were tested but none showed co-integration with the trade balance. The only measure of the real exchange rate that was co-integrated with the trade balance was the one defined by the relative price of tradeables and non-tradeables. The evidence is not inconsistent with the observation that the direction of causality runs from the real exchange rate to the trade balance
Revesta de Economia Política 1994
v. 14, n. 1(53)
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