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1 THE PROCESS OF POLICY ANALYSIS The Process of Policy Inquiry Multidisciplinary Policy Analysis Policy-Relevant Information Policy-Informational Transformations Policy-Analytic Methods Three Cases of Policy Analysis Forms of Policy Analysis Retrospective and Prospective Analysis Descriptive and Normative Analysis Problem Finding and Problem Solving Segmented and Integrative Analysis The Practice of Policy Analysis Reconstructed Logic versus Logic-in-Us Metodological Opportunity Costs Critical Thinking and Public Policy The Structure of Policy Arguments Dynamics of Argumentation, Public Discourse and Debate 2 POLICY ANALYSIS IN THE POLICY-MAKING PROCESS Some Historical Background Early Origins The Nineteenth-Century Transformation The Twentieth Century--And Beyond The Policy-Making Process Models of Policy Change Compreensive Economic Rationality Second-Best Rationality Disjointed Incrementalism Bounded Rationality Mixed Scanning Erotetic Rationality Critical Convergence Punctuated Equilibrium Policy Analysis in the Policy Process Potential Uses of Analysis Uses of Analysis in Practice 3 STRUCTURING POLICY PROBLEMS Nature of Policy Problems Beyond Problem Solving Characteristics of Problems Problems verses Issues Three Classes of Policy Problems Problem Structuring in Policy Analysis Creativity in Problem Structuring Phases of Problem Structuring Errors of the Third Type (Ey) Types of Policy Models Descriptive Models Normative Models Verbal Models Symbolic Models Procedural Models Models as Surrogates and Perspectives Methods of Problem Structuring Boundary Analysis Classificational Analysis Hierarchy Analysis Synectics Brainstorming Multiple Perspective Analysis Assumptional Analysis Argumentation Mapping 4 FORECASTING EXPECTED POLICY OUTCOMES Forecasting in Policy Analysis Aims of Forecasting Limitations of Forecasting Types of Futures Goals and Objectives of Normative Futures Sources of Goals, Objectives, and Alternatives Approaches to Forecasting Objects Bases Choosing Methods and Techniques Extrapolative Forecasting Classical Time-Series Analysis Linear Trend Estimation Nonlinear Time Series Exponential Weighting Data Transformation Catastrophe Methodology Theoretical Forecasting Theory Mapping Theoretical Modeling Causal Modeling Regression Analysis Point and Interval Estimation Correlational Analysis Judgmental Forecasting The Delphi Technique Cross-Impact Analysis Feasibility Assessment 5 RECOMMENDING PREFERRED POLICIES Recommendation in Policy Analysis Recommendation and Multiple Advocasy Simple Model of Choice Complex Model of Choice Forms of Rationality Criteria for Policy Recommendation Approaches to Recommendation Public versus Private Choice Supply and Demand Public Choice Cost-Benefit Analysis Types of Costs and Benefits Bonse on Tasks in Cost-Benefit Analysis Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Methods and Techniques for Recommendation Objectives Mapping Value Clarification Value Critique Cost Element Structuring Cost Estimation Shadow Pricing Constraint Mapping Cost Internalization Discounting Sensitivity Analysis A Fortiori Analysis Plausibility Analysis 6 MONITORING OBSERVED POLICY OUTCOMES Monitoring in Policy Analysis Sources of Information Types of Policy Outcomes Types of Policy Actions Definitions and Indicators Approaches to Monitoring Social Systems Accounting Social Experimentation Social Auditing Research and Practice Synthesis Techniques for Monitoring Graphic Displays The Gini Index Tabular Displays Index Numbers Interrupted Time-Series Analysis Control-Series Analysis Regression-Discontinuity Analysis 7 EVALUATING POLICY PERFORMANCE Ethics and Values in Policy Analysis Thinking about Values Ethics and Metaethics Standards of Conduct Descriptive Ethics, Normative Ethics and Metaethics Descriptive Value Typologies Developmental Value Typologies Normative Theories Metaethical Theories Evaluation in Policy Analysis The Nature of Evaluation Functions of Evaluation Criteria for Policy Evaluation Approaches to Evaluation Pseudo-evaluation Formal Evaluation Varieties of Formal Evaluation Decision-Theoretic Evaluation 8 DEVELOPING POLICY ARGUMENTS The Structure of Policy Arguments Types of Knowledge Claims The Underdetermination of Conclusions by Information Warrants, Backings and Rebuttals Modes of Policy Argumentation Argumentation from Authority Argumentation from Method Argumentation from Generalization Argumentation from Classification Argumentation from Cause Argumentation from Sign Argumentation from Motivation Argumentation from Intuition Argumentation from Analogy Argumentation from Parallel Case Argumentation from Ethics Evaluating Policy Arguments Some Hermeneutic Guidelines Guidelines from Informal and Formal Logic Systems of Argumentation 9 COMMUNICATING POLICY ANALYSIS The Process of Policy Communication Tasks in Policy Documentation Tasks in Oral Presentations and Briefings The Policy Issue Paper Issues Addressed in the Policy Issue Paper Elements of the Policy Issue Paper The Policy Memorandum The Executive Summary The Letter of Transmittal The Oral Briefing and Visual Displays Policy Analysis in the Policy-Making Process Characteristics of Information Modes of Inquiry Structure of Problems Political and Bureaucratic Structures Interactions among Stakeholders