The butterfly did it : the aberrant vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach
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ArticlePublisher: Ada W. Finifter, 2001American Political Science Review 95, 4, p. 793-810Abstract: We show that the butterfly ballot used in Palm Beach County, Florida, in the 2000 persidential election caused more thatn 2,000 Democratic voters to vote by mistake for Reform candidate Pat Cuchanan, a number larger than George W. Bush`s certified margin of victory in Florida. We use multiple methods and several kinds of data to rule out alternative explanations for the votes Cuchanan received in Palm Beach County. Among 3,053 U.S. counties where Buchanan was on the ballot, Palm Beach County has the most anomalous excess of votes for him . In pal Beach County, Buchanan`s proportion of the vote on election-day ballots if four times larger thatn his proportion on absentee (nonbutterfly) ballots, but Cuchanan`s proportion does not differ significantly between electon-day and absentee ballots in any other Florida county. Unlike other Reform candidates in Pal Beach County, Buchanan tended to receive election-day votes in Democratic precincts and from individuals who voted for the Democratic U.S. Senate canidate. Robust estimation of overdispersed binominal regression models underpins much of the analysis
| Item type | Current location | Collection | Call number | Status | Date due | Barcode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Periódico | Biblioteca Graciliano Ramos | Periódico | Not for loan |
We show that the butterfly ballot used in Palm Beach County, Florida, in the 2000 persidential election caused more thatn 2,000 Democratic voters to vote by mistake for Reform candidate Pat Cuchanan, a number larger than George W. Bush`s certified margin of victory in Florida. We use multiple methods and several kinds of data to rule out alternative explanations for the votes Cuchanan received in Palm Beach County. Among 3,053 U.S. counties where Buchanan was on the ballot, Palm Beach County has the most anomalous excess of votes for him . In pal Beach County, Buchanan`s proportion of the vote on election-day ballots if four times larger thatn his proportion on absentee (nonbutterfly) ballots, but Cuchanan`s proportion does not differ significantly between electon-day and absentee ballots in any other Florida county. Unlike other Reform candidates in Pal Beach County, Buchanan tended to receive election-day votes in Democratic precincts and from individuals who voted for the Democratic U.S. Senate canidate. Robust estimation of overdispersed binominal regression models underpins much of the analysis
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