Modeling project investment decisions under uncertainty using possibility theory
By: MOHAMED, Sherif
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Contributor(s): McGOWAN, Alison K.
Material type: 
ArticlePublisher: 2001International Journal of Project Management 19, 4, p. 231-241Abstract: With the increasing popularity of privately financed and operated construction projects, a systemtic evaluation of investment options is needed, especially if they are competing for the same capital resource. Traditional evaluation methods incorporating risks analysis techniques require the input of relative frequencies which are not easily available in construction. This paper proposes a method capable of modeling the effects of both monetary and non-monetary aspects of an investment option, using interval mathematics and possibility theory to handle the inherent uncertainty associated with such aspects. Two numerical examples are presented to demonstrate its application in the assessment and ranking of available investiment options
| Item type | Current location | Collection | Call number | Status | Date due | Barcode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Periódico | Biblioteca Graciliano Ramos | Periódico | Not for loan |
With the increasing popularity of privately financed and operated construction projects, a systemtic evaluation of investment options is needed, especially if they are competing for the same capital resource. Traditional evaluation methods incorporating risks analysis techniques require the input of relative frequencies which are not easily available in construction. This paper proposes a method capable of modeling the effects of both monetary and non-monetary aspects of an investment option, using interval mathematics and possibility theory to handle the inherent uncertainty associated with such aspects. Two numerical examples are presented to demonstrate its application in the assessment and ranking of available investiment options
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