ALVAREZ, R. Michael <br/><br/>
Issues, economics, and the dynamics of multiparty elections :  the british 1987 general election 

 -  2000 
<br/><br/> We offer a model of multiparty elections that combines voter`s retrospective economic evaluations with consideration  of parties` issue positions and the issue preferences of voters. We show that  both policy issues and the state  of the economy matter in British elections. In 1987 voters made a largely  retrospective evaluation of the Conservatives based on economic  performance; those who rejected  the Conservative Party chose between Labour and Alliance based on issue positions. Through simulations we move the parties in the issue space and reestimate  vote shares as well as hypothesize  an alternative  distribution of views on the economy, and we show that Labour had virtually  no change to win with a centrist party as a viable alternative. The predictions from our 1987 simulations are supported in an analysis of the 1992 British elections. We argue for multinomial probit in studying three-party elections because it allows for a richer formulation of politics than do competing methods