BUTHE, Tim

Taking temporality seriously : modeling history and the use of narratives as evidence - American Political Science Association, 2002

Social scientists interested in explaining historical processes can, indeed should, reuse the choice between modeling causal relationships and studying history. Indetifying temporality as the defining characteristic of processes that can be meaningfully distinguished as history. I show that modeling such phenomena engenders particular difficulties but is both possible and fruitful. Narratives, as a way of presenting empirical information, have distinctive strenghts that make them especially suited for scholarship, and structuring the narratives based on the model allows us to treat them as data on which to test the model. At the same time, this use of narratives raises methodological problems not identified in recent debates. I specify these problems, analyze their implications, and suggest ways of solving or minimizing them. There is no inherent imcompatibility between - but much potential gain from - modeling history and using historical narratives as data