GLASER, Jack <br/><br/>
The Efficacy and effect of racial profiling :  a mathematical simulation approach 

 - Washington, DC :  Wiley Periodicals,  Spring 2006 
<br/><br/> Racial profiling - the use of race, ethnicity, or national origin by law enforcement officials to make judgments of criminal suspicion - is assessed in terms of its effect on targeted populations and on law enforcement efficiency. A mathematical simulation, comparing multiple profiling and non-profiling scenarios, is employed. This analysis indicates that racial profiling exacerbates incarceration disparities between groups whether or not the groups differ in criminality rates, and that the long-term effects of profiling in terms of criminal captures depend on the calibration of profiling rates to criminality rates. The highest long-term criminal capture rates appear to occur when stop rate ratios match, or are slightly below, criminality rate ratios between groups. When the possibility of a deterrent effect is modeled, profiling appears to yield fewer criminal captures and have little or no crime reduction effect, and may even increase overall crime rates