WISE, Carol

Introdução : debates, desempenho e as políticas de Escolha política - São Paulo : Editora 34, jul./set. 2001

Despite the widespread adoption of market reforms in Latin America over the past decade, there is still no consensus about the type of exchange rate regime that would best complement a liberal economic model. While there has been a distinct shift from fixed to floating rates since the Mexican peso crisis of 1994, the empirical evidence is ambivalent when it comes to measuring policy success under any one regime. In light of this empirical ambivalence, this introductory article argues that a more fruitful line of research lies in understanding the political economy lessons that can be gleaned from the standpoint of exchange rate management. This entails, first, an examination of the conflicting pressures that special interests exert on policy officials to maintain the exchange rate at a certain level; and second, it requires analysis of the broader institutional mechanisms through which monetary policy is mediated. The article suggests that policy "success" or "failure" can depend as much on policymakers' tenacity and statecraft as on the technicalities of macroeconomic policymaking