ARAUJO, Ricardo Azevedo <br/><br/>
Assessing the dynamics of terms of trade in a model of cumulative causation and structural change 
= Avaliando a dinâmica dos termos de troca em um modelo de causalidade cumulativa e mudança estrutural 


 - São Paulo :  Editora 34,  jan./mar. 2016 
<br/><br/> The motivation for this paper stems from the steady decline in the share of consumer expenditures on goods produced in the global south, coupled with the (empirically ambiguous) Singer/Prebisch hypothesis that this can be explained by a secular decline in the southern terms of trade. Drawing on these sources of inspiration, the paper sets out to study the dynamics of the terms of trade using a multi-sector growth model based on the principle of cumulative causation. The upshot is a North-South model of growth and trade in which the evolution of the terms of trade depends on differential rates of productivity growth in different sectors of the economy – and in which terms of trade dynamics may not be the best guide as to whether or not there is an uneven development problem