What can increase the default risk in local governments?
By: GALERA, Andrés Navarro
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Contributor(s): LARA-RUBIO, Juan | BUENDÍA-CARRILLO, Dionisio | RAYO-CATÓN, Salvador.
Material type: 
ArticlePublisher: Los Angeles : Sage, jun. 2017 International Review of Administrative Sciences 83, 2, p. 397-419Abstract: Concern has been expressed by international organisations and in previous studies about the financial situation of local governments, and the question of debt has been identified as a crucial element in efforts to overcome the current financial crisis. However, the variables that can affect the financial soundness of these governments have not been sufficiently studied, despite their direct relation to the credit risk premium. In this article, we aim to identify risk factors for default by local governments, and provide useful information to municipal financial managers. We conducted an empirical study of 148 Spanish municipalities and analysed data from four years, applying a random effects logistic regression model. Our findings reveal that a lower population density, less dependent population, falling levels of per capita income and the presence of progressive local government are all risk factors for default by local governments. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the general financing structure variable and debt composition and maturity variable do influence the risk of default by local governments
Concern has been expressed by international organisations and in previous studies about the financial situation of local governments, and the question of debt has been identified as a crucial element in efforts to overcome the current financial crisis. However, the variables that can affect the financial soundness of these governments have not been sufficiently studied, despite their direct relation to the credit risk premium. In this article, we aim to identify risk factors for default by local governments, and provide useful information to municipal financial managers. We conducted an empirical study of 148 Spanish municipalities and analysed data from four years, applying a random effects logistic regression model. Our findings reveal that a lower population density, less dependent population, falling levels of per capita income and the presence of progressive local government are all risk factors for default by local governments. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the general financing structure variable and debt composition and maturity variable do influence the risk of default by local governments
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