000			01634naa a2200205uu 4500
001			10718
003			OSt
005			20190211155138.0
008			030203s2005 xx ||||gr |0|| 0 eng d
100	1		_aALVAREZ, R. Michael _9286
245	1	0	_aIssues, economics, and the dynamics of multiparty elections : _bthe british 1987 general election
260			_c2000
520	3		_aWe offer a model of multiparty elections that combines voter`s retrospective economic evaluations with consideration of parties` issue positions and the issue preferences of voters. We show that both policy issues and the state of the economy matter in British elections. In 1987 voters made a largely retrospective evaluation of the Conservatives based on economic performance; those who rejected the Conservative Party chose between Labour and Alliance based on issue positions. Through simulations we move the parties in the issue space and reestimate vote shares as well as hypothesize an alternative distribution of views on the economy, and we show that Labour had virtually no change to win with a centrist party as a viable alternative. The predictions from our 1987 simulations are supported in an analysis of the 1992 British elections. We argue for multinomial probit in studying three-party elections because it allows for a richer formulation of politics than do competing methods
700	1		_aNAGLER, Jonathan _919675
700	1		_aBOWLER, Shaun _91377
773	0	8	_tAmerican Political Science Review _g94, 1, p. 131-150 _d, 2000 _w
942			_cS
998			_a20030203 _bCassio _cCassio
998			_a20060726 _b1048^b _cQuiteria
999			_aConvertido do Formato PHL _bPHL2MARC21 1.1 _c10844 _d10844
041			_aeng