000			01789naa a2200217uu 4500
001			11306
003			OSt
005			20190211155404.0
008			030219s2006 xx ||||gr |0|| 0 eng d
100	1		_aELKJAER, Martin _93214
245	1	0	_aStochastic budget simulation
260			_capr. 2000
520	3		_aThe purpose of this article is to present a new method for cost estimation. The innovative idea is to combine the conventional calculation method stochastic simulation with basic facets of the successive principle. The purpose of this is to avoid the assessment of dependencies between cost items in the budget. The method is named Stochastic Budget Simulation (SBS), and it is made operational with a software application. The method can be applied to most projects with a simple cost structure at the early stages where uncertainty plays a significant role in estimating the overall cost. The most likely users are planners, project managers or consultants. It is not necessary to understand the calculations, the statistical theory or the simulation technique in order to use the method. However, users should be able to arrange items and overall influences in accordance with the urgent requirement of statistical independence. SBS is a new and radically different way to analyse and evaluate the economic consequences of large-scale projects by quantifying intervals for cost items and using simulation as tool to represent distributions of the possible costs
650		4	_aCost Estimation _912529
650		4	_aStochastic Simulation _920156
650		4	_aUncertainty Analysis _920157
773	0	8	_tInternational Journal of Project Management _g18, 2, p. 139-147 _d, apr. 2000 _w
942			_cS
998			_a20030219 _bLucima _cLucimara
998			_a20060801 _b1545^b _cQuiteria
999			_aConvertido do Formato PHL _bPHL2MARC21 1.1 _c11430 _d11430
041			_aeng