000			02216naa a2200181uu 4500
001			11749
003			OSt
005			20190211155629.0
008			030312s2006 xx ||||gr |0|| 0 eng d
100	1		_aAARON, Henry J _98
245	1	0	_aPresidential address - seeing through the fog : _b
260			_c2000
520	3		_aAll public policies have two things in common. they deal with te future and, as a result, they are based on forecasts or projections. The forecasts or projectios may be implicit or based on native extrapolation or ad hoc assumptions. They may be explicit and based on elaborate extrapolations or on behavioral models. In either case, unfortunately, they are notoriously unreliable. In fact, they almos always are wrong - sometimes just a bit wrong, but often massively wrong. Nonetheless, forecastas are what distinguishes reasoned planning from blind action. Without forecasts, we would be totally at sea. That we have to use forecasts of projections, that we know they will be wrong, and that they usually are wrong raise some difficult questions for policy analysis and policymarking. Regrettably, in may view they receive too little attention. My purpose todayis to urge that they receive more. My comments are intended to make four points. First, it is important for policymakers to appreciate how erro-prone forecast and projections actually are. Second, it is important not to permit the availability of projections or forecasts to obscure fundamental policy questions that are important in any plausible scenario. Third, uncertainty means that, where possible, it is prudent to design policies with built-in flexibility that respond automatically to diverse possible outcomes. Fourth, where built-in flexibility is impossible, complete analysis should take into account the consequences if forecasts prove wrong, and weigh those consequences against the results of postponing action until information improves or against other policies under the plausible range of possible outcomes
773	0	8	_tJournal of Policy Analysis and Management _g19, 2, p. 193-206 _d, 2000 _w
942			_cS
998			_a20030312 _bCassio _cCassio
998			_a20060331 _b1659^b _cQuiteria
999			_aConvertido do Formato PHL _bPHL2MARC21 1.1 _c11872 _d11872
041			_aeng