000			02021naa a2200181uu 4500
001			5100717545117
003			OSt
005			20190211160208.0
008			051007s2005 xx ||||gr |0|| 0 eng d
100	1		_aCLARKE, Harold D.; LEBO, Matthew _921994
245	1	0	_aFractional (Co)integration and Governing Party Support in Britain
260			_aCambridge : _bCambridge University Press, _cApril 2003
520	3		_aRecent developmentsin the analysis of long-memoried processes provide important leverage for analysing time-series variables of interest to political scientists. This article provides an accessible exposition of these methods and illustrates their utillity for addressing protracted controversies reagrding the political economy of party support in Britain. Estimates of the fractionally differencing parameter, d, reveal that governing party support, prime ministerial approval and economic evaluations are long-memoried and non-stationary, and that governing party support and priome ministerial approval are fractionally cointegrated. Pace conventional wisdom that party leader images matter little, if all, analyses of multivariate fractional error correction models show that prime ministerial approvalhas important short-run and long-run effects on party support. Prospective and retrospective personal economic evaluations are influential but, contrary to a longstanding claim , national economic evaluations are not significant. The article concludes by suggesting that individual-level heterogeneity is a likely source of the observed aggregare-level fractional integration in governing party support and its determinants. Specifying parsimonious models that incorporate theoretically meaningful is a challenging topic for future research
773	0	8	_tBritish Journal of Political Science _g33, 3, p. 283-301 _dCambridge : Cambridge University Press, April 2003 _xISSN 0007-1234 _w
942			_cS
998			_a20051007 _b1754^b _cAnaluiza
998			_a20051010 _b1417^b _cAnaluiza
999			_aConvertido do Formato PHL _bPHL2MARC21 1.1 _c13762 _d13762
041			_aeng