000			01436naa a2200169uu 4500
001			5110716072717
003			OSt
005			20190211160211.0
008			051107s2005 xx ||||gr |0|| 0 eng d
100	1		_aSCHEVE, Kenneth; TOMZ, Michael _922331
245	1	0	_aElectoral Surprise and the Midterm Loss in US Congressional Elections
260			_aCambridge : _bCambridge University Press, _cJuly 1999
520	3		_aAlberto Alesina and Howard Rosenthal argue about the outcomes of US presidential elections accounts for two important features of the American political economy: the regular loss of votes experienced by the president's party in midterm congressional elections, and the systematis relationship between the party of the incoming president and macroeconomic performance. Scholars recently have begun conducting rigourous tests of the reationship between surprise and economic performance, but no similar empirical work exists on how surprise affects midterm elections. In this article, we offer the first proposition that electoral surprised moderate voters are about the outcome of a presidential election, the lower the probability that they will support the president's party in the following midterm contest
773	0	8	_tBritish Journal of Political Science _g29, 3, p. 507-521 _dCambridge : Cambridge University Press, July 1999 _xISSN 0007-1234 _w
942			_cS
998			_a20051107 _b1607^b _cAnaluiza
999			_aConvertido do Formato PHL _bPHL2MARC21 1.1 _c13999 _d13999
041			_aeng