000			02023naa a2200193uu 4500
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003			OSt
005			20190211161203.0
008			060830s2006 xx ||||gr |0|| 0 eng d
100	1		_aGEER, John _927593
245	1	0	_aFilling in the Blanks : _bA New Method for Estimating Campaign Effects
260			_aNew York, NY : _bCambridge University Press, _cApril 2006
520	3		_aScholars have invested a great deal of effort in trying to estimate the impact of political campaigns on the public. While progress has been made, one fundamental problem continues to plague our attempts to study campaigns: the lack of good, detailed data about the behaviour of candidates. In the United States, for instance, the presidential battle is a national struggle that unfolds locally on the stages of fifty states, yet most data collection efforts have treated presidential elections as if they were national contests, conducted (implicitly) in an identical manner across the entire country. Using available (national) data as a baseline and theory to predict plausible variations from that baseline, the authors devise a method for simulating variation in presidential campaigns across states and over election years—one of the crucial missing pieces of the puzzle. Their method generates a range of plausible effects, which is often narrow enough to shed light on important hypotheses. It can be employed whenever data are available at a more aggregate level than is desirable. This method is then applied to assess the debate over the impact of attack advertising on turnout. This approach suggests that campaign negativism stimulated (rather than demobilized) turnout in presidential elections from 1980 through 2000.
700	1		_aLAU, Richard R. _919613
773	0	8	_tBritish Journal of Political Science _g36, 2, p. 269-290 _dNew York, NY : Cambridge University Press, April 2006 _xISSN 0007-1234 _w
942			_cS
998			_a20060830 _b1434^b _cNatália
998			_a20081031 _b1055^b _cZailton
999			_aConvertido do Formato PHL _bPHL2MARC21 1.1 _c19240 _d19240
041			_aeng