000			01982naa a2200205uu 4500
001			8091216415910
003			OSt
005			20190211164230.0
008			080912s2008 xx ||||gr |0|| 0 eng d
100	1		_aMERRIL III, Samuel _935518
245	1	0	_aCycles in american national electoral politics, 1854-2006 : _bstatistical evidence and an explanatory model
260			_aNew York, NY : _bCambridge University Press, _cFebruary 2008
520	3		_aAre there cycles in American politics? In particular, does the proportion of the Democratic/Republican vote share for president and/or seat share in Congress rise and fall over extended periods of time? If so, are the cycles regular, and what are the cycling periods? Moreover, if there are regular cycles, can we construct an integrated model—such as a negative feedback loop—that identifies political forces that could generate the observed patterns? First, we use spectral analysis to test for the presence and length of cycles, and show that regular cycles do, in fact, exist—with periods that conform to those predicted by the Schlesingers—for swings between liberalism and conservatism—but with durations much shorter than those most commonly claimed by Burnham and others in characterizing American political realignments. Second, we offer a voter–party interaction model that depends on the tensions between parties' policy and office motivations and between voters' tendency to sustain incumbents while reacting against extreme policies. We find a plausible fit between the regular cycling that this model projects and the time series of two-party politics in America over the past century and a half
700	1		_aGROFMAN, Bernard _935519
700	1		_aBRUNELL, Thomas L _929722
773	0	8	_tAmerican Political Science Review _g102, 1, p. 1-18 _dNew York, NY : Cambridge University Press, February 2008 _xISSN 00030554 _w
942			_cS
998			_a20080912 _b1641^b _cTiago
998			_a20081113 _b1023^b _cZailton
999			_aConvertido do Formato PHL _bPHL2MARC21 1.1 _c27474 _d27474
041			_aeng