000			01588naa a2200217uu 4500
001			9052016035310
003			OSt
005			20190211164938.0
008			090520s2009 xx ||||gr |0|| 0 eng d
100	1		_aRODGERS, Robert _99101
245	1	0	_aThe Effect of underforecasting on the accuracy of revenue forecasts by State Governments
260			_aMalden, MA : _bBlackwell Publishers, _cjan./feb. 1996
520	3		_aDo state budget officials regularly underforecast revenue collections, and, if so, why? Analysis of 336 forecast errors for the 50 states from fiscal year 1975 through fiscal year 1992 indicated that the revenues collected by the states have been, on average, 2.1 percent more than the revenues that were forecasted. During recessions, revenue forecasts were much more accurate than during economic expansions. The average forecast error during recessions was near zero, while the average forecast error during economic expansions was quite large. Interviews with state budget officials suggested to the authors that the reason why the forecasts of revenues have been so accurate during economic downturns and so inaccurate during periods of economic prosperity is because states routinely underforecast revenues
590			_apublic administration review par
590			_ajanuary/february 1996
590			_avolume 56 numero 1
700	1		_aJOYCE, Philip _936978
773	0	8	_tPublic administration review : PAR _g56, 1, p. 48-56 _dMalden, MA : Blackwell Publishers, jan./feb. 1996 _xISSN 00333352 _w
942			_cS
998			_a20090520 _b1603^b _cTiago
999			_aConvertido do Formato PHL _bPHL2MARC21 1.1 _c29163 _d29163
041			_aeng