000			01391naa a2200181uu 4500
001			0060812513637
003			OSt
005			20190211172617.0
008			100608s1995 xx ||||gr |0|| 0 eng d
100	1		_aSHELNUTT, John _941009
245	1	0	_aRegional econometric forecasting and applications for state revenue projections
260			_aNew York : _bMarcel Dekker, _c1995
520	3		_aThis article presents issues of and uses for state econometric model forecasting, featuring forecasts in the state of Arkansas in support of the state Revenue Stabilization Act. Regional data issues are discussed with reference to forecast accuracy. It is shown that data revision is a significant determinant of overall forecast accuracy. This data revision component of total error is shown to be asymmetric with respect to regional business cycles. Other factors of econometric model construction are discussed with reference to the goal of modeling unique regional growth characteristics. Gross revenue forecasting for the state budget process is shown to be more reliable than random walk forecasts as an independent and conservative forecast input.
773	0	8	_tInternational Journal of Public Administration - IJPA _g18, 1, p. 43-57 _dNew York : Marcel Dekker, 1995 _xISSN 01900692 _w
942			_cS
998			_a20100608 _b1251^b _cDaiane
998			_a20100723 _b1359^b _cDaiane
999			_aConvertido do Formato PHL _bPHL2MARC21 1.1 _c34175 _d34175
041			_aeng