000			01405naa a2200181uu 4500
001			0070216261037
003			OSt
005			20190211173409.0
008			100702s2006 xx ||||gr |0|| 0 eng d
100	1		_aBUNN, Matthew _941527
245	1	0	_aA mathematical model of the risk nuclear terrorism
260			_aThousand Oaks : _bSAGE, _cSeptember 2006
520	3		_aThis article presents a mathematical model for measuring the global risk of nuclear theft and terrorism. One plausible set of parameter values used in a numerical example suggests a 29 percent probability of a nuclear terrorist attack in the next decade. The expected loss over that period would be $1.17 trillion (undiscounted), or more than $100 billion per year. Historical and other evidence is used to explore the likely values of several of the key parameters, and policy options for reducing the risk are briefly assessed. The uncertainties in estimating the risk of nuclear terrorism are very large, but even a risk dramatically smaller than that estimated in the numerical example used in this article would justify a broad range of actions to reduce the threat.
773	0	8	_tThe Annals of The American Academy of Political and Social Science _g607, p. 103-120 _dThousand Oaks : SAGE, September 2006 _xISSN 00027162 _w
942			_cS
998			_a20100702 _b1626^b _cDaiane
998			_a20100706 _b1139^b _cCarolina
999			_aConvertido do Formato PHL _bPHL2MARC21 1.1 _c34904 _d34904
041			_aeng