000			01684naa a2200193uu 4500
001			0121711144737
003			OSt
005			20190211174240.0
008			101217s2010 xx ||||gr |0|| 0 eng d
100	1		_aSAVIO, Nicolas _943471
245	1	0	_aForecasting the effectiveness of policy implementation strategies
260			_aPhiladelphia : _bRoutledge, _cJanuary 2010
520	3		_aPrimarily, policies are intended to address economic, social and environmental problems. When implementing a policy, any government will be faced with the decision as to what strategy to adopt in order to meet the objectives set out by the policy in the most cost effective way. Several such Policy Implementation Strategies (PIS) may be available, making such a decision not so straightforward. With limited funds available, such a decision has particular importance for budgeting. This paper proposes forecasting PIS effectiveness as a decision support tool. The nature of Structured Analogies (SA) is considered suitable for generating such forecasts. A simpler version of SA, semi-structured analogies (S-SA), where experts do not need to recollect the exact outcome of analogies, is tested. Empirical findings suggest that in the hands of non-experts, the S-SA approach improves forecast accuracy when compared to unaided judgment. Accuracy improves further when forecasts are produced in groups
700	1		_aNIKOLOPOULOS, Konstantinos _943472
773	0	8	_tInternational Journal of Public Administration - IJPA _g33, 2, p. 88-97 _dPhiladelphia : Routledge, January 2010 _xISSN 01900692 _w
942			_cS
998			_a20101217 _b1114^b _cDaiane
998			_a20110119 _b1223^b _cCarolina
999			_aConvertido do Formato PHL _bPHL2MARC21 1.1 _c37823 _d37823
041			_aeng