000			03690cam a2200421 i 4500
999			_c96524 _d96524
003			BR-BrENAP
005			20191016062605.0
008			150506s2015 nyua b 001 0 eng
020			_a9780804136716
040			_aBR-BrENAP _bPt_BR
041	0		_aeng
082	0	0	_a303.49 _223
090			_a3 _bT347s
100	1		_aTetlock, Philip E
245	1	0	_aSuperforecasting : _bthe art and science of prediction / _cPhilip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
260			_aNew York: _bBroadway Books, _c2015.
300			_a340 p.
504			_aInclui bibliografia.
505	0		_t1. An optimistic skeptic _t2. Illusions of knowledge _t3. Keeping score _t4. Superforecasters _t5. Supersmart? _t6. Superquants? _t7. Supernewsjunkies? _t8. Perpetual beta _t9. Superteams _t10. The leader's dilemma _t11. Are they really so super? _t12. What's next?
520			_a"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superf
650		0	_aCiências Sociais _912757
650		0	_913694 _aEconomia _xPrevisão econômica
700	1		_aGardner, Dan
909			_a201901 _bVinícius
942			_cG