Regional econometric forecasting and applications for state revenue projections
By: SHELNUTT, John
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ArticlePublisher: New York : Marcel Dekker, 1995International Journal of Public Administration - IJPA 18, 1, p. 43-57Abstract: This article presents issues of and uses for state econometric model forecasting, featuring forecasts in the state of Arkansas in support of the state Revenue Stabilization Act. Regional data issues are discussed with reference to forecast accuracy. It is shown that data revision is a significant determinant of overall forecast accuracy. This data revision component of total error is shown to be asymmetric with respect to regional business cycles. Other factors of econometric model construction are discussed with reference to the goal of modeling unique regional growth characteristics. Gross revenue forecasting for the state budget process is shown to be more reliable than random walk forecasts as an independent and conservative forecast input.
This article presents issues of and uses for state econometric model forecasting, featuring forecasts in the state of Arkansas in support of the state Revenue Stabilization Act. Regional data issues are discussed with reference to forecast accuracy. It is shown that data revision is a significant determinant of overall forecast accuracy. This data revision component of total error is shown to be asymmetric with respect to regional business cycles. Other factors of econometric model construction are discussed with reference to the goal of modeling unique regional growth characteristics. Gross revenue forecasting for the state budget process is shown to be more reliable than random walk forecasts as an independent and conservative forecast input.
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